No export Future for the Rafale ?

Source : flightglobal.com

Cassidian, EADS military branch, part of the Eurofighter consortium displayed a strange chart during the last Seoul Air Show. According to Cassidian predictions, the Rafale production will end up in 2019 with zero export orders while the Eurofighter will sell until 2035.
Well, we all know that marketing powerpoints always tend to twist a bit the reallity but this one is certainly over optimistic about the export potential of the Typhoon compare to the Rafale.

First, the Tranche 3B of the Eurofighter (124 aircrafts) is in very bad shape and will most probably be cut.
Then, the export prospects of the plane are certainly not as bright as the chart says : the probability to get orders from Japan and Korea is very thin (if not nil), and the risk that India and Switzerland  go for the Rafale is quite high. Not to mention the UAE and Brazil where the Typhoon is not even considered at all.

In 2012 we should have a clearer view of the fighter market for the next 15 years and it could be very different from the Cassidian crystal ball forecasts as far as Rafale and Eurofighter are concerned..