The other two bidders in the competition are U.S.-based
Boeing with its F-18 Super Hornet and Sweden's Saab
with its Gripen.
[...]
The contract will have an initial value of about $4
billion, but will likely be worth considerably more over time
once maintenance and follow-on orders are included.
Rousseff previously had concerns about the Rafale because the jet had not found any buyers outside
France.
That raised doubts about whether Dassault would have the scale
necessary to build the jets at a reasonable cost and maintain them over
time.
The sources said Rousseff's concerns were assuaged when
India announced on Jan. 31 that it had entered exclusive talks
to buy 126 Rafales. Brazilian Defense Minister Celso Amorim
traveled to New Delhi last week to discuss the deal with Indian
officials and examine documents related to Dassault's bid.
"The India deal changed everything," one of the Brazilian
sources said. "With India's decision, it's now very likely the
Rafale will be the winner here."
Shares in Dassault Aviation were up about 4.5 percent, at
706.5 euros, in Paris following the news. A spokesman for the
company declined comment.
Jeff Kohler, a vice president of Boeing's business
development division, said on the sidelines of the Singapore
Airshow he believed the Brazil bid was still "up in the air."
The Brazilian sources said Dassault offered the best
combination of a high-quality aircraft and the sharing of
proprietary technology that Rousseff has said is most critical
to the deal. Brazil hopes to use the technology to expand its
own budding defense industry, led by aircraft maker Embraer
.
Boeing's offer of technology has yet to be finalized, but
the sources said they believe it cannot compete with Dassault's
bid because the United States has previously placed tight
restrictions on the sale of military technology abroad,
including one incident involving Embraer in 2006.
Dassault touts the Rafale as an agile, medium-sized aircraft
with low operating costs that can be more quickly deployed than
its bulkier competitors. Those attributes may appeal to Brazil,
which has no significant problems with its neighbors and plans
to use the aircraft mainly for defensive purposes such as
patrolling its recently discovered offshore oil fields.
[...]
The sources said that unexpected developments, especially a
breakdown in India's talks with Dassault, could still cause
Rousseff to change her mind.
They also said her decision would probably not be announced
until after France's April-May election, in an attempt to keep
the deal from becoming overly politicized.
[...]
The F-18 is widely believed to
be cheaper than the Rafale, and Boeing recently confirmed that
it will offer the jet to Brazil at the same per-unit price as
during the last round of bidding in 2009.
Despite her misgivings on Boeing, Rousseff also did not want
to choose a jet that might not even be in production a decade
into the future. In December, French Defense Minister Gerard
Longuet warned that Dassault would stop production of the Rafale
in 2021 if it did not win any export orders.
Within days of India's announcement regarding talks for the
Rafale, Amorim traveled to New Delhi to gauge the bid's terms
and its likelihood of proceeding as planned.
Amorim told the Times of India on Wednesday that Indian
officials "promised to give us some documents...such as basic
rules on the tender process that we could compare to ours."
Brazil is not the only country that appears to be suddenly
following India's lead. French newspaper La Tribune reported on
Feb. 2 that Dassault could soon seal a sale of at least 60
Rafale fighter jets to the United Arab Emirates, turning around
a deal that also appeared to be a lost cause.
-------------------------------------