Indian financial newspaper, LiveMint is reporting that the 2 bidders, EADS and Dassault, could be called next Thursday by the Indian Ministry of defense, possibly to reveal the winner of the contest.
According to the newspaper, some rumors (yet, not confirmed by the Indian Mod) would rank the Eurofighter as the lowest bidder. If true, the Eurofighter would technically be the winner unless the Indian government eventually decides that strategic concerns impose to select the L2 bidder.
Kovy,
ReplyDeleteThe Typhoon wouldn't be winner automatically but it would have a very sound basis to claim victory or at worse protest and derail the contract if the Rafale is judged winner (it would also work the other way around). The crucial question is how much is the price differential here-if it is very close, the offsets and strategic benefits arguments (which are open to speculation) would come into play.
So it ain't over, but the party which is L-1 with a reasonable price difference would have a decisive advantage.
Thanks, I've updated the news according to your comment
ReplyDeleteI think the rumours are true, Eurofighter is the winner.
ReplyDeleteAdd if this rumour is true:
http://www.tacticalreport.com/view_news/UAE_Air_Force_Rafale_F-16_F-15_and_Eurofighter/2410
then it's bye-bye from UAE (and also Kuwait and Qatar)
and if this rumour is also true:
http://www.zeit.de/2012/02/Ruestung-Griechenland
then the Rafale's lost out in Greece too.
Malaysia was always an outside shot, failed in Switzerland, so that just leaves Brazil.
A strong possibility then that the Rafale will receive no export orders.
EFTyphoon,
ReplyDeleteNether the Eurofighter or Rafale have won any of those countries you have mentioned. That the UAE are trying to squeeze out more from Dassault is not surprising-they will do the same with Eurofighter.
About Greece-guess you missed the news that the Eurofighter closed its office in Athens.
And about India, has the government said anything yet?
Greece wont be able to buy any expensive fighter jets for a very long time to come. They would hardly even afford the affordable Gripen NG. Second hand F-16's would be my guess (if anything at all), but considering the delays of the F-35, the U.S. might just start to grip on to their F-16's for spare parts or to do MLU's and keep them in service for another 15 years.
ReplyDeleteThe way I see it, the Rafale lost its chances with Brazil when Lula stepped down. It's either the Gripen E/F out of an economical aspect, or the F/A-18E/F out of a political aspect. Maybe further ahead when Brazil gets their carrier to replace the A-4's however.
UAE still stands as the biggest possibility for a Rafale export. But in order to do that, Dassault really has to sell their souls to give the cheapest price possible or else UAE might just aswell buy the F-15E/SE for the same kind of price but higher availability for spare parts.
The UAE and Brazil are likely to be political decisions (Super Hornet for Brazil while most likely Rafale for UAE). The Super Hornet has the added advantage of bringing industrial synergy between Boeing and Embraer and also being very competitively priced compared to the Rafale
ReplyDeleteFollowing a rational line of thinking as operators of Mirage 2000, Rafale is defitively the choice of preference for the IAF.
ReplyDeleteThe demonstarted effectiveness and versatility of this fighter over all others - F22 included -makes it the ideal new plane for India, providing the country with a huge step forward in deterrence value especially considering that it is both nuclear and capable.
The future will place stealthy potencial opponents before the chosen fighter something with Rafale can handle better than any other due to its IR tracking / attack capabilities (MICA IR)together with Meteor.
In WVR scenario,no plane can currently beat Rafale and certainly not Eurofighter!
So, I feel sure these qualities will prevail over any other to provide the IAF pilots with the very latest & the very best.
By the way, I am British like Peter Collins!!
Please refer to his exclusive Rafale flight test in "Flight International"
Michael
JP, this thread is about rumours (and hence speculation). Yes there is nothing concrete yet, but the point I was making is that if the current round of rumours are true then there is little chance of export orders for the Rafale.
ReplyDeleteI remember the news about EF closing its office in Greece, but that's old news. Read this:
http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/article/1383501-greece-still-splashes-out-billions-defence
And we have had an announcement from India. Remember the $1.23 billion deal to equip its 51 upgraded French Mirage 2000s, the two announcements are not unconnected. In political circles this is seen as the French winning one contract but losing the other (MMRCA) - i.e. its intended to soften the blow.
And the tactical report is interesting because, if it is correct, the Rafale doesn't even make the short list for the UAE. And therefore it won't be on Qatar's or Kuwait's short list either.
ReplyDeleteEF Typhoon,
ReplyDeleteThere's nothing new in the Presseurop article. That a lot of vendors have been trying to sell their wares to Greece has been making headlines for years-but the practical question is whether it will be possible for the forseeable future. Here's the article from the main Greek English newspaper dated 22 Dec on Eurofighter's withdrawal-
http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_22/12/2011_419725
They don't expect a contract for at least 6-8 years. How exactly can things change so drastically within a span of two weeks? And remember there are significantly cheaper American and Swedish offerings too.
What exactly has India announced. People who keep bringing up the political angle to Indian defense deals don't really have much of a clue about domestic Indian politics. All political parties in India are wary of defense-related scandals. And the Mirage upgrade price tag will lead to a scam unless the costs are amortised via a Rafale purchase. There is no way you can soften a blow if the government is forced to cancel the Mirage upgrade plan if the federal auditors and opposition parties raise the stink of a scam.
About tactical report-what exactly do they say? I have been following TR for close to two years and they come up with new angles every month. One day its the Rafale, then the Super Hornet, then the Strike Eagle, then the Eurofighter...... And I am not even talking of the UAE, but also reports for Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. That's how reliable they are.
ERRATA/
ReplyDeleteThe rapidly drawn-up above post obviously should read:"Nuclear & carrier capable" Yes Rafale is what the IAF needs primarily for both these reasons as well as the fact that it is by design the right fighter for MICA -or the other way around: MICA is the correct missile for Rafale,imdisputably! No missile in any inventory has simalar capabilities: short / hi medium range, unequalled maneuverability (can hit targets comming from behind, fully helmet display compatible and lastly but not least: EM + IR versions. Rafale systems can fully exploit these characteristics like no other by way of SPECTRA + OSF. Rafale also has a fully developed digital AESA radar. Vital considerations with respect the pending deal in question. The recent MICA order is therefore probably very, very significant.
Michael
Surely nuclear capability means it can carry and fire the French ASMP-A, nothing else.
ReplyDeleteI do not think there is an Indian equivalent of that missile. And surely the ASMP-A wouldn't be for sale. Neither would be the firing mechanisms and security systems. So I do not quite understand how this 'capability' would help the Indians.
Christian,
ReplyDeleteIndia is developing a cruise missile called the Air Launched Missile which would be roughly in the same class as the ASMP.
http://www.defence.pk/forums/india-defence/81324-big-story-secret-k-missile-family.html
The French Air Force chief last year openly touted the type's nuclear capability so there's the possibility that they could offer nuclear cooperation to secure the deal. That's being touted as an advantage by those lobbying for the Rafale.
http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-09-23/edit-page/30189927_1_mirage-2000-french-air-force-mirage-fleet
The Rafale's significantly heavier strike capability (5 heavy/wet points vs 3 for the Typhoon) would give it an edge in a prospective nuclear strike configuration. While the SU-30 has greater range, it's significantly larger RCS and older defensive suite would put it at an disadvantage against the newer European aircraft.